Probabilistic Reduction of a Generation System Adequacy Calculation

2016 57th International Scientific Conference on Power and Electrical Engineering of Riga Technical University (RTUCON 2016): Proceedings 2016
Vladislav Oboskalov, Jānis Gerhards, Anatolijs Mahņitko, Danil Ignatiev

Problems of a generation system reduction in calculations of a power system (PS) adequacy are considered. The attention is mostly focused on mathematical models, based on the binominal and Poisson distributions, Poisson failure flows and characteristic functions of random variables. The reduction procedures result in the disturbance of integer number of units in operation. It was shown that it is appropriate to carry out rounding-off and following correction of probabilistic indices using the criteria of capacities at hand and expected values of generation tripped equality. Moreover, the reduction error affects dispersion of the tripped capacity. As a result of models comparison the preference is made for models, based on the binominal and Poisson distributions. In the case of huge PS units diversification the combined distribution is assumed to be used, emphasizing units with the highest capacity and equivalent the rest, in order to perform adjusted calculations by means of computer

Keywords
power system, adequacy, generation system reduction, binominal distribution, Poisson distribution, failure flows
DOI
10.1109/RTUCON.2016.7763147
Hyperlink
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7763147/

Oboskalov, V., Gerhards, J., Mahņitko, A., Ignatiev, D. Probabilistic Reduction of a Generation System Adequacy Calculation. In: 2016 57th International Scientific Conference on Power and Electrical Engineering of Riga Technical University (RTUCON 2016): Proceedings, Latvia, Riga, 14-16 October, 2016. Piscataway: IEEE, 2016, pp.362-367. ISBN 978-1-5090-3732-2. e-ISBN 978-1-5090-3731-5. Available from: doi:10.1109/RTUCON.2016.7763147

Publication language
English (en)