Future Development Scenarios of the Latvian Power System: Updated Results

2021
VPP Enerģētika projekts FutureProof, Antans Sauļus Sauhats, Ļubova Petričenko, Romāns Petričenko, Kārlis Baltputnis, Zane Broka

This report (D1.3) offers modelling-based analysis of various future development and operation scenarios of the Latvian power system. It is based on the groundwork laid in D1.2, while considering modifications in the methodology and assumptions that have emerged in the second half of the project through the results of WP1–WP4 activities. For instance, while the general methodological principle of using two complementary modelling approaches for cross-validation still holds, the previously envisioned Backbone modelling environment has been replaced with the conceptually similar but notably user-friendlier open-source environment Spine Toolbox and its SpineOpt component (also developed by VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and their partners). While the underlying modelling paradigm is very similar, the strength of Spine Toolbox lies in its streamlined multi-scenario parallel computing process. The other modelling approach used exploits the bespoke Regional Power System Model (RPSM) developed in-house at RTU IPE during the project, taking advantage of their extensive experience in the modelling of various power system and electricity market components and processes. While the first approach (as utilized in the project) optimizes the power system operation under assumption of perfect information, RPSM allows for imperfections in the decisions of market participants based on their individual objectives and electricity market price forecasts. For both approaches, the main assessment indicators are the reserve needs and RES overproduction (implying curtailment). The report has two main chapters. The first one is devoted to scenario analysis with RPSM. In total, four distinct scenarios are modelled: one relating to the near future after the desynchronization project, another one dealing with 2030, and two scenarios considering 2050 with varied development of RES capacities. Additionally, the potential need for reserve power capacities in a future power system dominated by RES is assessed. The second chapter utilizes a model created with the Spine Toolbox (and SpineOpt) focusing on 2050 scenarios. The resuls obtained by both approaches are compared. A number of additional scenarios are considered concerning interconnection faults, isolated operational mode, additionally increased demand and different energy storage developments. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is performed on electricity demand, wind power and solar power capacities. After the conclusions, there are technical appendixes and, additionally, a report on wind power industry development trends till 2050, prepared by RTU IPE cooperation partners within FutureProof, Ventspils University of Applied Sciences.

Keywords
enerģētika; energosistēma; modelēšana; optimizācija; scenāriji; atjaunīgie energoresursi; vēja enerģētika
Hyperlink
https://ortus.rtu.lv/science/lv/datamodule/442

Sauhats, A., Petričenko, Ļ., Petričenko, R., Baltputnis, K., Broka, Z. Latvijas elektroenerģijas sistēmas nākotnes attīstības scenāriji: atjauninātie rezultāti: Valsts pētījumu programma “Enerģētika”, projekts “FutureProof” VPP-EM-INFRA-2018/1-0005. Rīga: Rīgas Tehniskās universitāte, 2021. 59 p.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)