Latvia’s Sectoral Development and Competitiveness Analysis and Forecasting
2009
Astra Auziņa-Emsiņa

The paper is devoted to Latvia’s sectoral development and competitiveness. The recent trends of Latvia’s national economy and sectoral development trends till 2nd quarter of 2009 are being examined. In the paper, Latvia’s goods exports by major groups are analyzed, as well as analysis of leading exports’ partner countries and evaluation of development trends of these countries. Manufacturing has been examined in more detail in the paper. International comparison amid European Union member states is carried out by several indicators. The author proposes an analytic solution for analysis and forecasting of manufacturing sector development that includes the sectoral disaggregation based on applied technology (into four groups – high technology, medium-high technology, medium-low technology, and technology industries). The application of the proposed analytic approach by the author is related to integration of “up-to-down” approach. This approach is especially topical and functional in practice for evaluating of impact and consequences of government economic policy and its application in condition when levels (or values) of target indicators of total economy are set. By using the elaborated solution based on this approach, at the same time, it is possible to model both development and competitiveness of certain set of industries (for example, high technology industries) and a specific branch (as manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations).


Keywords
Latvijas tautsaimniecība, lejupslīde, nozaru konkurētspēja, nozaru attīstība, ekonomiski matemātiskie modeļi, izmaksu-izlaides tabulas, prognozēšana

Auziņa-Emsiņa, A. Latvia’s Sectoral Development and Competitiveness Analysis and Forecasting. Economics and Business. Vol.18, 2009, pp.9-18. ISSN 14077337.

Publication language
Latvian (lv)
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