Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools
Latvian Journal of Physics and Technical Sciences
2016
Virginijus Radziukynas,
Arturas Klementavičius
The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed
short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and
wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and
the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors
and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional
input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay
of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the
Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind
power capacities (the year 2023).
Atslēgas vārdi
forecasting error, short-term forecasting, system load, wind power, wind speed
DOI
10.1515/lpts-2016-0008
Hipersaite
http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/lpts.2015.53.issue-2/lpts-2016-0008/lpts-2016-0008.xml?format=INT
Radziukynas, V., Klementavičius, A. Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools. Latvian Journal of Physics and Technical Sciences, 2016, Vol.53, Iss.2, 3.-13.lpp. ISSN 0868-8257. Pieejams: doi:10.1515/lpts-2016-0008
Publikācijas valoda
English (en)