Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Hotel Occupancy
Journal of Business Economics and Management 2023
Konstantins Kozlovskis, Yuanyuan LIU, Nataļja Lāce, Yun Meng

The development and availability of information technology and the possibility of deep integration of internal IT systems with external ones gives a powerful opportunity to analyze data online based on external data providers. Recently, machine learning algorithms play a significant role in predicting different processes. This research aims to apply several machine learning algorithms to predict high frequent daily hotel occupancy at a Chinese hotel. Five machine learning models (bagged CART, bagged MARS, XGBoost, random forest, SVM) were optimized and applied for predicting occupancy. All models are compared using different model accuracy measures and with an ARDL model chosen as a benchmark for comparison. It was found that the bagged CART model showed the most relevant results (R 2> 0.50) in all periods, but the model could not beat the traditional ARDL model. Thus, despite the original use of machine learning algorithms in solving regression tasks, the models used in this research could have been more effective than the benchmark model. In addition, the variables’ importance was used to check the hypothesis that the Baidu search index and its components can be used in machine learning models to predict hotel occupancy.


Atslēgas vārdi
bagged CART, bagged MARS, XGBoost, random forest, SVM, hotel occupancy
DOI
10.3846/jbem.2023.19775
Hipersaite
https://journals.vilniustech.lt/index.php/JBEM/article/view/19775

Kozlovskis, K., LIU, Y., Lāce, N., Meng, Y. Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Hotel Occupancy. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 2023, Vol. 24, No. 3, 594.-613.lpp. ISSN 1611-1699. e-ISSN 2029-4433. Pieejams: doi:10.3846/jbem.2023.19775

Publikācijas valoda
English (en)
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